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Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight gives Obama a 91% chance of winning tonight; PPP, a left-leaning pollster, predicts over 300 electoral votes for Obama.

But others show the race closer, and the Electoral College race could be nail-biter, based on all sorts of factor such as weather, long lines, voter ID, GOTV efforts and some election officials in swing states who seem to be hell-bent on confusing folks on their way to the polls.

So here's a quick guide to watching the results tonight and getting a sense of how things are going for either side.

First, a summary: You've got to get 270 electoral votes to win the Electoral College; 269-269 is a tie (which would be decided in the U.S. House of Representatives, probably in Romney's favor).

The New York Times' Electoral Map suggests that Obama has 243 electoral votes that are totally safe or lean toward him; Romney has 206. That means Obama needs to hold those states and get just 27 more electoral votes to win; Romney needs to hold his and win 64 more electoral votes.

The Swing States in this math are New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. (Others that lean Obama that Romney might pick off are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico. States that Obama could pick up from leaning Romney are North Carolina and Arizona.)

Now, the timeline... all times are Central.

5:00 p.m. Some polls close in Indiana and Kentucky. Obama won Indiana in 2008, but it's polling strongly for Romney this cycle. Interesting to watch, though, is the race between Tea Party GOP favorite Richard Mourdock (rape pregnancy is a gift from God) and Congressman Joe Donnelly, the Democrat. Mourdock knocked off Richard Lugar in the primary, but may now lose the seat for the GOP thanks to his national renown -- and Tea Party-vs.-normal-people schisms in the Indiana state GOP.

6:00 p.m. Final polls in Indiana/Kentucky. Polls close in Virginia. (They also close in Georgia, South Carolina and Vermont.) It may not be called all that quickly but Virginia is the first toss-up state to watch closely. If Obama wins it, he's probably having a good night -- he would only need one other swing state (other than New Hampshire) to get to 270 if he holds his "leaners." If Romney wins Virginia, his path to victory could tack "Southern" and he could still win without Ohio.

6:30 p.m. Polls close in Ohio and North Carolina (and West Virginia). Ohio may still have long lines and provisional ballots to count, but it'll be one of the most important states to watch.

One particular House race to watch while the results are coming in, according to PolicyMic, is Ohio District 16, which pits "business" against "labor" in an expensive House showdown between GOP Rep. Jim Renacci and Dem. Rep. Betty Sutton. If Sutton wins, that's one sign that Obama will, too; if Renacci wins, then Ohio may be trending …

Many people like to be a critic, and many people like to make a snap judgment on any number of topics. Many may see a preview for a new movie and instantly know if it will be great or not just from the short clip.

You could apply that same principle to the NFL Draft. We see what a team does and instantly love it or hate it. In reality it could take anywhere from two to five years to see if a team made the right move.

But that isn’t going to stop me from making a snap judgment on the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft. These are my three winners and three losers from April 27’s first round.

Let's get critical.

Loser: Teams that traded up for a quarterback

One thing nearly all the analysts agreed on is that this draft featured a weak quarterback class. That didn’t stop the Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans from jumping up in the draft to take one.

Chicago signed Mike Glennon in free agency and traded with the San Francisco 49ers to move up a spot so they could grab Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears gave up two third-round picks (one in 2018) and a fourth-round pick in this draft to move up.

Quick note: First- and second-round picks should end up being starters in year one; third-round ones should contribute significantly early their first year; fourth-round ones should help out at some point in their rookie season, and fifth-, sixth- and seventh-round ones need to develop while playing special teams.

That means the Bears gave up two players who should help a team that has holes all in the roster. Chicago gave up a lot of picks for a guy who made just 13 starts in his college career.

Kansas City traded its third-round pick this year and the first-round pick in the 2018 draft to move up from the 21st pick to the Buffalo Bills’ 10th pick. The Chiefs gave up a starter and a player that should help right away in Patrick Mahomes, who will sit behind Alex Smith.

Fans will wonder why Kansas City moved up if Mahomes isn’t a star. For a playoff team like the Chiefs, the team could have used the picks to make a run at the Super Bowl.

Houston ended up giving up a 2018 first-round pick, moving from 25th to the Cleveland Browns’ 12th spot. This is least of the bad moves from teams who moved up since the Texans were able to draft Deshaun Watson.

The Texans’ defense could make the transition easier, but they did give up a starter in next year’s draft. If Watson doesn’t pay off quickly, it will be another in a recent line of quarterbacks who didn’t work in Houston.

Winner: the Cleveland Browns

Say what you want about the Browns not getting a quarterback, but in …