Here's the latest, again from Salon:
Nov. 2, 2004 |
Current Electoral Vote:
Bush: 30,444,394 (51% total)
Kerry: 28,535,091 (48% total)
And finally, the first swing state came in -- Pennsylvania goes to John Kerry. All day long, exit polling showed wider margins for Kerry than any other swing state -- this first swing state result supports the early word.
President George W. Bush is now projected by multiple TV networks to win Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Kansas, South and North Dakota, Texas, Wyoming, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah Arkansas, Missouri and Idaho. Sen. John Kerry is projected to win California, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, the District of Columbia and three of four electoral votes so far from Maine.
Still to come, New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, Montana, Hawaii, and Idaho.
Interestingly, it's worth taking a look back at the last batch of exit polls circulated by our esteemed colleague, Slate. The publication of those polls inspired quite a bit of enthusiasm among Democrats, because if they hold, Kerry wins. Since then, the tightness of the race has encouraged Republicans and set Democratic stomachs to churn. Yet Democrats shouldn't get too depressed. So far, there have been no state results that have contradicted those predictions -- although early numbers from Wisconsin, with some 34 percent of the vote in, do not look promising for Kerry.
Meanwhile, the pundits are frothing about Florida. Republican spinners claim that Bush is doing better in key counties than he did in 2000. The Democrats are countering by noting that their huge turnout is taking place in South Florida, and vote totals there may not be counted until.... It may be a long night.
Here's an hour-by-hour guide to how the rest of the evening will go. All times Eastern Standard Time:
Midnight/1 a.m. Alaska closes. Alaska is Bush territory, but there's also a tightly contested Senate race that might see a rare Democratic pickup. So even if the presidential race is a done deal by the wee hours, true political junkies will have plenty of reason to watch the returns from the North.
What's it mean? I think all it means is that Ohio is the new Florida. It's down to the wire. Wisconsin leaning towards Bush is not good. It's a swing state that Zogby had predicted would go for Kerry.