Jackson Free Press

Today I saw a tweet about Rep. Paul Ryan getting testy with a reporter and stopping an interview so I clicked over to see what he was saying. But what was most interesting was not the testy part; it was what he actually said before that in the clip.

Did a prominent Republican just say that President Obama isn't trying to regulate guns any more than a Romney-Ryan administration would? If so, the NRA is wasting millions on ads in swing states.

But more important, Ryan made an admission out loud, on a camera, that most Republicans never have: that "inner city" crime results from poverty. As someone who has studied the connections between crime and poverty for many years, as well as the political strategies around inner-city crime, I immediately recognized what a remarkable statement that was (even if it shouldn't be). Just go back and read anything written by Reagan and Bush drug czars about the hopelessness of "super-predators" (racist rhetoric now debunked) to see what I mean. Right here in Mississippi, conservatives won't admit that poverty leads to crime--or at least creates the conditions that make it much more likely.

Of course, if you keep listening, you'll see why Republicans don't like to admit the link between crime and poverty: because it takes resources and education to create the "opportunities" that Ryan said are needed in challenged communities. And when the reporter asked him a very logical follow-up of how that need fit with the Romney-Ryan plan for tax cuts, he got testy, accused the reporter of putting words in his mouth and ended the interview.

Meantime, Gov. Romney said in the debate last week that he would put all costs for education and health care back on the states. That means that poverty in Mississippi will go up -- because we can't afford to pay these bills. Just look at the state Legislature now: It won't even fund adequate education when it has the money to. "Adequate" education. And guess what: We have a crime problem in Jackson, and increasing in suburbs and rural areas, as a result. It's not just an African American problem (as conservatives such as Bill Bennett wanted us to think); we have a serious white gang meth operation in the state in areas like Florence.

This video was very instructive: Ryan gets it to a point, but he's not willing to do anything about it, even as he's not willing to do anything to make it a bit harder for about-to-be criminals to get their hands on firearms. Unaddressed poverty + lack of education + strapped state resources + a state soaked with guns = a much more dangerous place for all of us to live. How can you not be willing to address any of those issues if you have even a basic understanding of the roots of crime (which Ryan indicated)? Even if you …

A new polling analysis published by examiner.com indicates something about Mississippi that has been in the works for a while: Based on recent elections, our state is trending blue.

Based on polling data on a Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump showdown in 2016, Mississippi is one of the few Deep South states that would go for Clinton in that matchup.

This analysis might surprise many who think that Mississippi is the reddest state of the red (especially based on our statewide cavemen, er, elected officials). But several facts make it much more complicated than at first glance:

1. State Democrats have provided very few even-marginally-progressive options historically, giving younger and less-conservative choices to vote for, creating voter lethargy among those who might turn out and vote "blue" otherwise. That fact is actually changing this year, with several openly progressive (and female) Democrats getting at least some party support, instead of the pseudo-Republicans the party has tended to put up in the last 20 years.

2. More young people of all races are staying in Mississippi, and many of them are voting Democratic, and have since 2004.

3. Demographics, demographics, demographics. The irony of Mississippi being the state with the highest percentage of enslaved people in 1860 is that our state still has the highest percentage of African Americans and is more likely than much of Dixie to go blue first. Put simply, African Americans tend to vote Democratic, ever since the Republican Party embrace of Dixiecrats back in the late 1960s after national Dems supported civil-rights laws, and we have the highest percentage of black residents in the country.

4. And, let's be honest, even many Republicans don't want bat-shit-crazy Trump running this country.

5. Finally, to be honest again, a lot of white people like Clinton better than Obama (even if I'm not one of them).

So, there are no surprises here: Mississippi has been steadily trending blue for a while now. The question, as always, is: Will the people who can flip the state into the blue column turn out both this November (to save public-education funding and turn out a governor who makes us look like the most stuck-in-the-past state) and next November?

Time, and voter registration, will tell. Progressive (which is easy to be here by rejecting the radical right) Mississippians must find the will to stop giving up our power to sellouts to bigotry and backward ideas (and ideologues) to lift our state up. I've watched this will grow since we started this paper in 2002—and saw serious evidence of it when we turned back Personhood, shocking the nation—and I believe in upcoming elections we may well surprise the world once again. I've believed this was coming for nearly 15 years now.

Stay tuned and register to vote.

UPDAT Aug. 24, 2016: The examiner.com link above is broken, but here is an article and another about …