Jackson Free Press

Hollywood rolls out the red carpet Sunday, Feb. 27, to celebrate the achievements of the motion picture industry during the past year. Despite promises of something new and better, devoted Oscar fans know and expect a rather dull, drawn-out ceremony. We have lowered our expectations and fortified ourselves for a long night, as we patiently wait for the unscripted moments that make the show worthwhile. Cue Sally Fields and her misremembered "You like me" speech." Her unrestrained happiness made that year's show.

The scripted parts-turned-gaffes, though, can also boost a slow show. I have vivid memories of a 1989 Academy Awards opening performance with Snow White, played by an unknown actress, skipping down the aisles, joking with celebrities along the way and then singing a weak rendition of "Proud Mary" with her Prince Charming, Rob Lowe. "Rollin', rollin' / keep the cameras rollin'" still haunt my dreams.

No such thing will happen this year. The Disney folks were so horrified to see someone dressed as their little darling dancing the boogie-woogie with non-singer Rob Lowe, they promptly sued the Academy of Motion Pictures and Sciences for defaming Snow White and diminishing her image. Lucky me.

We also won't see a naked man with a tuft of fur above his upper lip running across the stage. Those antics belong to the bygone days of the '70s; security has tightened up since a streaker upstaged David Niven. If today's public screams "foul" from the flash of flesh from an innocent wardrobe malfunction (poor, misunderstood Janet Jackson), imagine the 1973 outcry for a complete lack of wardrobe.

Here's more bad news: The commercials for this year's Academy Awards focus on the cuddly factor of Ann Hathaway and James Franco, the youngest hosts in the show's history. They wear matching host-in-training tees and practice basic dance moves. He's got slippery fingers, and she drops to the floor with a thud. Hathaway and Franco are undeniably adorable, but will that sustain us for three-and-a-half hours? I cringe in anticipation of the duet. Franco can saw his arm with a penknife like a champ, but can he sing? That's the real question.

But, as we all well know, the show must go on. Here are my predictions for what I anticipate will be a rather vanilla awards ceremony.

Nominees for Best Picture are: "The King's Speech," "The Social Network," "Black Swan," "The Fighter," "Inception," "The Kids Are All Right," "127 Hours," "True Grit," "A Winter's Bone" and "Toy Story 3." They all loosely share a common theme of perseverance.

In "The King's Speech," Britain's King George IV overcomes his stammer and gives his country a voice on the brink of World War II. A ballet dancer in "Black Swan" struggles to find the dark side of her personality to accurately portray a black swan. In "The Social Network," a Harvard computer geek with poor social skills and an arrogant, unlikeable demeanor, finds a way to make a half billion friends by inventing Facebook. "True Grit" tells the story of a country girl hiring the meanest marshall in the county to avenge her father's death, and in a "Winter's Bone," a young Appalachian woman struggles to survive. "127 Hours," based on a true story, shows its audience that perseverance leads to survival.

"The King's Speech" will win. It has the right pedigree: a terrific story based on a king and a nation at war, perfect acting, and it's backed by the Weinstein Brothers, who make things happen.

"It looks like a 'King's Speech' coronation," says veteran Oscar-watcher Tom O'Neil of awards website goldderby.com and theenvelope.com. "The question is, how wide will its influence spread?"

Though "The Social Network" could pull an upset, don't expect any surprises for the Best Actor in a Leading Role category. Colin Firth of "The King's Speech" will win Best Actor.

The Best Actress in a Leading Role award will go to Natalie Portman for "Black Swan."

The role allows Portman to demonstrate a broad range of acting skills. After taking a year to train for the role, the actress changes from a sweet virgin ballerina into a raging psychotic temptress. Oscar voters reward such challenging roles, such as Robert DeNiro's transformative performance in "Raging Bull." Portman pulls off the same level of transformation. It is mesmerizing.

Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right" could prove my prediction wrong. This is Bening's fourth Oscar nomination, and she has many friends in the Academy who think that her time has arrived.

The Best Actor in a Supporting Role race is close between Christian Bale in "The Fighter" and Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech." Both actors were brilliant. Rush as Lionel Logue was indescribably wonderful, and Bale's performance as Dicky Ecklund was so different than anything we've seen him do before.

Bale embodied the physical and emotional world of a drug addict, and he did it so convincingly, you couldn't help root for him to change. Rush, however, who is one of only 25 people who have won the triple crown of acting—he has an Oscar, Tony and an Emmy—has a good shot at the Oscar. But my guess is the Academy will want to spread the love. I chose Bale over Rush. (But I would be just as happy if Rush won.)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role is the most uncertain competition of the Big 10 categories this year. Melissa Leo in "The Fighter," Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech" and Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit" seem to be on equal footing. If Amy Adams ("The Fighter") doesn't split the vote, Leo will edge out Carter and Steinfeld.

Up for Best Director: Tom Hooper of "The King's Speech." Hooper won the Directors Guild Award, and given that the DGA winner wins Best Director at the Oscars nine out of 10 times, Hooper is the expected winner. It is worth noting, however, that David Finch, ("The Social Network") took top directing honors over British-born Hooper at the recent British Academy of Film and Television Awards.

Best Writing for Original Screenplay: "The King's Speech," by David Seidler, undoubtedly takes this honor.

Best Writing for Adapted Screenplay "The Social Network," adapted by Aaron Sorkin, is one of the best screenplays ever written. It has to win this category.

While "How to Train Your Dragon," "Illusionist" and "Toy Story 3" are all phenomenal feats of animation, and nominees for the Best Animated Feature Film category, "Toy Story 3," which is also in the running for Best Picture, will take home the trophy.

Previous Comments

ID

162233

Comment

OK, a number of errors here. The above piece shouldn't be in Ronni Mott's blog, and the Oscars are Feb. 27, not 19th (which isn't a Sunday). Am fixing all of it right now. My apologies to Anita and the readers.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2011-02-21T14:08:15-06:00