Jackson Free Press

We are nearing the end of what seemed like a never ending two-week wait for Super Bowl LI. This Sunday, Feb. 5, the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons will take the field at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

The obvious question as time ticks down to kickoff is, “Which team is going to win the game?” That question has been a tough answer to find as I’ve dug through the statistics of each team.

New England has the best defense on paper, but Atlanta’s defense is better than its ranking and has been battled tested against the league’s top offenses. The Patriots’ defense feasted on weaker offenses in the regular season but is still a tough unit.

Both teams feature high-powered offenses that can put up plenty of points, so the key for both defenses will be stopping the opposing quarterback.

For teams wanting to beat the Patriots, the formula has been simple: Get pressure on quarterback Tom Brady and let the hits add up as the game goes along.

The New York Giants used that formula to beat New England in two Super Bowls, and other teams, such as the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens, have found success against the Patriots using the same game plan.

In Super Bowl XLIX, the Seattle Seahawks nearly rode that strategy to a win until a Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler made an interception and sealed the game for New England. Seattle was able to hit Brady seven times in that Super Bowl.

The Denver Broncos hit Brady 17 times on its way to Super Bowl 50 and kept right on attacking quarterbacks when they played against the Carolina Panthers for the championship. So will that game plan hold up this time?

Looking back at the regular-season games, New England won five times in instances where Brady got pressured more than other team’s quarterback. In one of the two Patriots losses, Brady didn’t play, and in the other, Seattle hit Brady five times, but the Patriots got to Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson four times.

In the playoffs, both the Houston Texans and the Pittsburgh Steelers were able to get to Brady more than the Patriots’ defense got to their quarterbacks. New England won both games anyway, including one matchup during which the Texans hit Brady eight times.

Teams have been able to get pressure on Brady, but it’s what happens in the secondary that is most important. Opponents haven’t held up in coverage until the pass rush gets to Brady.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has struggled when teams pressure quarterback Matt Ryan. Four of the Falcons’ five losses have come from games in which the Atlanta defense hit their opponents’ quarterback fewer times than the opposing team hit Ryan.

Seattle had 13 hits on Ryan to the Falcons’ five hits, the San Diego Chargers had nine hits to the Falcons’ six, the Philadelphia Eagles had six hits to the Falcons’ three, and the …