Jackson Free Press

There is an old saying in sports: “Offense wins games, but defense wins championships.” If that is the case, which defense will lead its team to a victory in Super Bowl LI?

Both offenses in this year’s Super Bowl, which airs Sunday, Feb. 5, at 5:30 p.m. on FOX, are two of the best in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons have the http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/seasontype/2">top-scoring offense, averaging 34 points per game, and the http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/seasontype/2">New England Patriots are third, averaging 28 points per game.

The team that plays the best defense should come out on top in this game. There are several ways to rank defenses—most rank defenses by the yards they allowed per game, but some defenses give up yards but not points.

Winning a football game is about who scores the most points, and sometimes, that means forcing a field goal instead of giving up a touchdown.

New England is the top defense by that measurement, http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/position/defense/seasontype/2">allowing just 16 points per game on average. Atlanta is 25th in the league in points allowed, as the http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/position/defense/seasontype/2">Falcons’ defense gave up 25 points per game.

Another great test of a defense is its ability to get off the field on third down. That means forcing punts and field goals instead of giving up long drives for touchdowns.

The Patriots’ defense allowed teams to http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/position/defense/seasontype/2">convert on third down 37 percent of the time for seventh in the league. Atlanta ended up allowing teams to http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/position/defense/seasontype/2">convert 42 percent of the time on third down for 26th in the NFL.

New England allowed teams to convert just http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/position/defense/seasontype/2">39 percent on fourth down, and the Falcons allowed a whopping http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/position/defense/seasontype/2">72 percent of fourth-down conversions. This is important if one team is behind late in the game and must gamble for a first down.

The numbers bare out that the Patriots get off the field better on third down so they give up fewer points, and Atlanta struggles at times to get stops, which means its defense gives up more points.

Another factor in this Super Bowl may be how each team responds in the red zone, the area from the opposing team’s 20-yard line to that end zone. This represents a good scoring chance for a field goal or touchdown.

New England allowed its opponents to make touchdowns in the red zone https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-red-zone-scoring-pct">50 percent of the time, and Atlanta allowed red-zone touchdowns https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-red-zone-scoring-pct">72 percent of the time. On offense, the Patriots scored touchdowns on https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct">64 percent of their red-zone trips, and the Falcons scored touchdowns on https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct">63 percent of their visits to the red zone.

Good defenses force turnovers, and both teams are great at that. The Patriots http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/position/defense/seasontype/2">forced 23 turnovers, and the Falcons forced 22 turnovers. Both teams only http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/position/defense/seasontype/2">gave the ball away 11 times this season on offense.

But the opponents that a team plays against can skew statistics somewhat. Playing a better team can mean giving up more points than playing a bad team, for one.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/ne">New England and http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/atl">Atlanta each played http://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff">seven teams that finished the season at or above .500 this season. Against those teams, New England went 6-1, and Atlanta went 4-3.

The Patriots also went http://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff">4-1 against playoff teams, and the Falcons went 2-2 against teams that reached the playoffs this season.

Atlanta played five of the http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/seasontype/2">top-10-scoring offenses this season, including two games against New Orleans, the second-highest-scoring offense. New England played just http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/seasontype/2">four top-10-scoring offenses, which includes Buffalo twice.

The Falcons went 4-2 against top-10-scoring offenses, and the Patriots went 4-0 against top-10-scoring offenses. Overall, teams on Atlanta’s schedule averaged 14th in scoring offense, and those on New England’s schedule averaged out to 21st in scoring.

This is important to note because the Falcons’ defense is statistically worse than the Patriots. However, Atlanta’s defense played just two offenses in the bottom 10 in scoring, whereas New England played seven offenses in the bottom 10.

These two teams had five opponents in common, and both went 4-1, losing to the same team, the Seattle Seahawks. http://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=400874536">New England lost by seven points, and http://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=400874732">Atlanta lost by two points. Both teams also scored 24 points against the Seahawks, and both had two turnovers and forced none.

So who has the better defense? Statistics will tell you that’s the Patriots, but the schedule might mean the Falcons’ defense is better than the what the stats show. We’ll find out soon enough.