"Drafting a Quarterback is Crapshoot: Part One" by SportsBlog | Jackson Free Press | Jackson, MS

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Drafting a Quarterback is Crapshoot: Part One

If you are running a mock draft of the 2016 NFL Draft, it might be time to just tear up any guesses at this point with the Philadelphia Eagles trading up to the second spot. The Eagles got the Cleveland Browns second pick in the second blockbuster trade before the draft.

The common theory is that both the St. Louis Rams, who have the first pick, and Philadelphia will draft a quarterback.

Two types of NFL teams exist: those who have a franchise quarterback and those who don’t have one. Quarterback is the most discussed and visible position on every NFL roster. Essentially, it is the face of the franchise.

When a team picks the spot correctly it can mean 10 to 15 years of success. When teams muck it up, it seems like it takes forever to fix that mistake.

Just how hard is it to pick a long-term starting quarterback? Let’s take a look back at the draft from 1998 to last year to see.

Every football fan old enough probably remembers the 1998 NFL Draft. The question before it happened was who should be the first pick: Peyton Manning out of Tennessee or Ryan Leaf out of Washington state?

The Indianapolis Colts picked Manning with the first pick of the draft, and he turned out to be a Hall of Fame quarterback now that his career is over. Leaf was selected No. 2, and he is now considered one of the biggest busts in NFL Draft history.

Eight quarterbacks were picked in 1998, and most ended up with short careers. Only Charlie Batch, Brian Griese and Matt Hasselbeck had some sort of success in the league.

The 1999 quarterback draft class produced the top three picks, though two didn’t pan out. Tim Couch, who the Cleveland Browns drafted first overall, did achieve a lot of success in the league.

He was the Browns' first pick upon their return as a franchise, and he didn’t have much help on a team starting over. The third pick of the draft was the Cincinnati Bengals choosing Akili Smith, who was pretty much a bust.

The Philadelphia Eagles used the second pick in the draft to select Donovan McNabb who was the most successful quarterback in the 1999 class. The Eagles hope the No. 2 pick is just as good to them this year.

Other notable picks in that class were Aaron Brooks, who had some success in New Orleans, Daunte Culpepper, who stuck around the league for awhile, Cade McNown and Shaun King.

Brock Huard from this class might be better known for his work with ESPN.

In the 2000 draft class, 12 quarterbacks were picked, but the must-known person was taken in the sixth round out of the University of Michigan. You might have heard of him: Tom Brady.

Yep, the guy picked in the sixth round was more successful than the six quarterbacks picked ahead of him. Chad Pennington was the only quarterback picked in the first round, and the only other quarterback NFL fans might remember is Marc Bulger, who New Orleans drafted, but he then found success with the St. Louis Rams.

Michael Vick was the top pick in the 2001 NFL Draft. Most people know him better for his off-the-field issues than his time in Atlanta or elsewhere.

Also in that year's draft, the San Diego Chargers took a notable quarterback in the second round: Drew Brees. San Diego made Brees the 32nd overall pick and he has worked out well in New Orleans, as well.

While Brees is a future Hall of Fame quarterback, of the 11 quarterbacks taken in that draft, only Jesse Palmer is still known for his work for ESPN. Overall, there wasn’t much to be proud of in this quarterback draft class.

In 2002, 15 quarterbacks, count 'em: 15, quarterbackswere picked in the draft and every single one amounted to nothing in the NFL. How do you miss on that many quarterbacks?

Here is who you will remember: David Carr as the top pick for the then-new franchise, the Houston Texans, Joey Harrington joining a long list of Detroit Lion failed quarterbacks, and Josh McCown, which might be the most successful quarterback in this draft.

Also, the Saints drafted a guy you might not remember: J.T. O'Sullivan.

While 2002 was the year of the dud in the draft, 2003 was the year of "just okay."

That year, the Bengals took Carson Palmer with the first pick and Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller and Rex Grossman also went in the first round. Teams took 13 quarterbacks in the draft, and players such as Chris Simms and Seneca Wallace also stood out at times.

But 2004 was the steak of NFL quarterback classes. Eli Manning was the first pick, followed by Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. Manning and Roethlisberger have won multiple Super Bowls, and Rivers has been a star as well.

Matt Schaub and Luke McCown also had long careers out of a class that saw 17 quarterbacks picked. The top picks that year were hits, but overall, it was more misses.

While the top half of the 2004 NFL Draft sizzled at the top, the 2005 class was solid from top to bottom. In it,14 quarterbacks were picked, with Alex Smith, who has been solid after a slow start to his career, as the first one. Aaron Rodgers was also in this class and has been the most successful.

The 2005 class also had Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick who fans might recall as the last quarterback picked with the 250th pick but is still a starter in the league.

As the top two picks from the 2006 NFL Draft, Vince Young burned hot quickly before flaming out, and Matt Leinart just flamed out. Out of the 13 quarterbacks picked then, Jay Culter is one of the only quarterbacks that has experienced a lot of success. Brad Smith has had a long career in the league as a quarterback and wide receiver, as well.

The first half of our look at quarterbacks drafted since 1998 ends with the 2007 Draft. This is an important one in NFL history. That year the Oakland Raiders selected JaMarcus Russell as the No. 1 pick.

If Ryan Leaf was the posterboy for draft busts, Russell is on the Mt. Rushmore of terrible draft picks. His contract is one of the big reasons why NFL teams started to push for a rookiewage scale.

Cleveland continued to be a quarterback graveyard with the selection of Brady Quinn in the second round. Kevin Kolb couldn’t stay healthy to have a career and Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards and Tyler Thigpen are other notable quarterbacks from the 11member class.

Check out tomorrow’s blog post as we go through the 2008 class to the 2015 class and a look at some numbers.

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