Jackson Free Press

Preseason is finally over. Starting tonight, when the Seattle Seahawks take the field as defending Super Bowl Champions against the Green Bay Packers, the games in the NFL count for real.

The first four weeks of the NFL season are always hardest to pick. History tells us some team will go from worst to first (it has happened the last 11 years) and at least four (since the playoffs expanded in 1990 there has been four teams at least who didn't reach the playoffs two years in a row) of the playoff teams from the season before will likely not make it back to the postseason.

Another thing that makes picking NFL games so hard the first month of the season is that everything you base picks off is from 2013. No professional league in America changes year to year like the NFL and past performance doesn't dictate future wins.

Most of the time the preseason doesn't help much because teams aren't trying to win preseason games. They are evaluating talent and normally don't game plan or run much more than base defense and offense.

This is truly a throw everything against the wall and see what sticks philosophy. If I pick half these 16 games correctly I will be happy. If I get 12 right I will be ecstatic and if I get all 16 then I know I'm set up for a huge fall for the rest of the season.

So without anymore rambling, here are my week one NFL picks (winner in bold):

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Throw last year's game when the Baltimore Ravens lost their opener as defending champs to the Denver Broncos. The Ravens had to go on the road (the Orioles wouldn't budge on their home game) and the 2012 game that was played on a Wednesday.

Seattle has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and one of most complete teams as well. The Seahawks crowd will be hyped and loud and that will cause problems for the Packers. Green Bay was injury plagued last season but still found away to get into the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers is healthy and I expect the Green Bay defense will keep this game close. Seattle pulls out the win with a dominate fourth quarter.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

This is one of the NFL's best rivalry games. It might not have the national appeal as other games but it does feature two fan bases that don't like each other.

Atlanta went from Super Bowl contender to dumpster fire because of injuries last season and Matt Ryan wasn't himself at all. You think this would be a bounce back season for the Falcons but I'm not so sure.

New Orleans has looked the part of Super Bowl contender this preseason. The defense looks deep and the offense always looks dangerous. As long as Drew Brees is healthy there isn't a game the Saints can't win.

Atlanta will make this game and the Saints might need a goal line stand to pull of the win but New Orleans does win over the Falcons.

Minnesota Vikings at St Louis Rams

Minnesota is going with Matt Cassel or rookie Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. St Louis lost Sam Bradford for the season (again) and is going with so Shaun Hill gets the start but former Southern Miss quarterback Austin Davis and Case Keenum could play.

The Rams have the better defense and maybe the best defensive line in all of the NFL but the Vikings have running back Adrian Peterson. This game is who do you like the best out of two bad choices.

Maybe Hill because the 2014 version of Kurt Warner for St Louis or Cassel does the same for the Vikings. I like the Rams over the Vikings but only because they are at home.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs for the last two seasons and have been in decline since losing the Super Bowl to Green Bay four years ago. The Steelers got old quickly on defense and the offensive line and had to struggle to reach 8-8 the last two years.

Cleveland is in perpetual state of rebuilding. It never seems to end for the Browns.

A rebuilding Pittsburgh team is better than a rebuilding Cleveland team. Browns fans are just waiting for the NBA to start so LeBron to bring them a title.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

Chad Henne is the starter for a Jacksonville team that is rebuilding over promising rookie Blake Bortles. Philadelphia enters year two of the Chip Kelly era with Nick Foles at quarterback.

Neither quarterback is going to give defenses nightmares but neither defense in this game will give offenses nightmares either. The Eagles have a better roster right now. Next season this might change.

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets

The Raiders are starting rookie Derek Carr at quarterback over Matt Schaub. In a weird plot twist, it was Schaub who took Carr's brother David's job in Houston. This is some sort of circle of life or sports movie plot twist that is just a fun nugget.

New York is still going with Geno Smith at quarterback. Not much to be inspired by with either quarterback situation.

Oakland is better but a rookie on the road for his first NFL start is tough. The Jets win because of defense and dreaded west coast to east coast travel for a noon kickoff.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore went from winning the Super Bowl to miss the playoffs last season. The Ravens got old on defense and Joe Flacco didn't live up to the big contract he got after the Super Bowl win.

This will be either a bounce back season or the Ravens are heading for as steep decline. Baltimore looks posed for either direction.

The Bengals need to make the leap this season or some heads are going to roll. Cincinnati has seemed ready to make a deep playoff run the last few seasons only to flame out.

Marvin Lewis has been around in Cincinnati longer than any other coach in the league but the New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick but has no playoff wins. It is time to put up or shut up for the Bengals under Lewis this season. Will the team play like they are playing for their coach's job?

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears

Both of these teams hope to be a playoff contender this season. Both of these teams have made moves over the last couple of seasons to make such a move possible.

Buffalo is in flux in ownership and Chicago is in flux on defense. I like the Bears over the Bill because they are at home.

Washington Redskins at Houston Texans

The Houston quarterback situation is a mess and the Washington situation isn't looking good unless Robert Griffin III turns his play around. Neither team has looked special in 2013 or this preseason.

RG3 is a better pick than Ryan Fitzpatrick. This game could see Washington go to Kurt Cousins and Houston turn to Ryan Mallett.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

Can Jake Locker stay healthy for the Titans? Are the Chiefs really a good team or just a product of a weak schedule last season?

Both teams could be playoff contenders or both could be picking high in the draft after the season. Recent history says the Chiefs are better than the Titans.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Do the Patriots still have Tom Brady at quarterback? Check. Does New England still Belichick as coach? Check.

Do the Dolphins have Ryan Tannehill at quarterback? Yep. Does Miami have Joe Philbin as head coach? Yep.

Then the Patriots win this game. Miami is better but New England is the model of constancy in a league that thrives on no constancy.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFC South is always wild but I have more faith in Cam Newton and Ron Rivera than I do in Josh McCown and Lovie Smith. That isn't much of a choice either way.

Yes, I know the Panthers won the division last season but everyone takes turns winning the NFC South. Can Carolina repeat as a playoff team is the real question.

I like Smith but he wasn't ever able to get over the hump in Chicago and I can only go on his past coaching job. Smith is a solid coach but maybe being in Tampa will give him a fresh start. Any team with McCown as the starter doesn't have the long term answer in place.

Carolina wins a Tampa Bay continues to figure out the rebuilding process.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

It has been quite the offseason for San Francisco. Player injuries, holdouts, suspensions, and arrests were some of the low points. Add a contract dispute with head coach Jim Harbaugh that is nearly becoming bitter and this looks like the recipe for a losing season.

Dallas is always a circus no matter what year it is but the Cowboys have suffered injuries, mainly on the defensive side of the ball, that could seal their fate. Quarterback Tony Romo is coming off back surgery and has never been able to lead this team to the promise land.

The 49ers win this game but I don't think either team is going to go very far unless they overachieve. Too much outside noise for both these teams.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Super Bowl losers struggle as bad if not worse than Super Bowl winners the next season. Denver has the talent to reverse that trend. Quarterback Peyton Manning knows he has to get it done soon if he wants to end his career with more than just one Super Bowl ring. His window is closing.

Indianapolis has got to be one of the luckiest teams in the NFL. The Colts went from Manning to Andrew Luck at quarterback. There is a generation of Colts fans who think that being a playoff team is a birthright.

This preseason, Indianapolis has struggled on the offensive line. Denver lost wide receiver Wes Welker to a PED suspension before the start of the season.

The Broncos are the better team right but the Colts have the better long term future.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions

Last season was a dumpster fire for the Giants and quarterback Eli Manning. The team had a ton of turnovers and couldn't stop anyone on defense. This was not a typical New York team under coach Coughlin.

Detroit has all the talent on offense to be really good. The problem is the Lions haven't been good enough on defense, mainly in the secondary.

This is a game in which both teams are thought to be on the rise. Everything points that both should be good this season.

I don't expect New York to be as bad as last season and I know that Detroit has way too much talent to not be a playoff contender. This is a toss to to me but I will give the edge to the Lions because they are at home.

San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals

If Arizona played in any other division they would probably be a playoff team last season. The Cardinals have a lot of pieces in place but the quarterback. Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is a star who has been loyal to the Cardinals even though the team hasn't been very good.

The Chargers made the playoffs last season and if not for playing in the tough AFC West you would have to put them as a lock to make the postseason. San Diego has to get past both the Chiefs and the Broncos in their playoff quest.

All the recent history is on the Chargers side but like the Cardinals this season as well. Arizona is at home in a rare prime time appearance, why not give the pick to the Cardinals.