Rock the Vote Poll: Youth Want Obama; No Palin Effect

Michael Connery is blogging about the new Rock the Vote poll results of young voters at futuremajority.com:

There are few surprises here. Barack Obama remains the choice of young voters (56 - 29%) and while overall support for both candidates remains steady, McCain has seen his maverick image plummet among young voters, perhaps due to negative campaigning in the weeks leading up to the poll. While Independent voters make up a slim portion of the youth vote this year, Independents are more likely to lean towards Obama than Sen. McCain. This is likely due to the fact that young voters view this election through the "change" frame favored by Obama rather than the "experience" frame recently pushed by the McCain campaign. Neither Biden's nor Palin's place on the ticket has altered the race among young voters.

Both of the Democratic Candidates are viewed more favorably by young voters than their Republican opponents. Both Democrats have a net positive favorable rating (+22 for Obama, +30 for Biden). Both Republicans have a net negative rating (-4 for both McCain and Palin). Joe Biden is the least known factor in the race among young voters, with 33% having no opinion of him.

All the candidates far better among Independents, who have favorable views of all the candidates. While McCain and Palin gain ground among independents, Obama still maintains a healthy lead among this group

While both Obama and McCain's favorable ratings have remained steady since February, McCain's unfavorable's have climbed by 15 points since then, moving his rating from a net positive to a net negative.

Despite that, both candidate's support remains steady, and supporters of both candidates have only increased their enthusiasm since February.
Among independents who have not yet cast their lot with a candidate, Obama stands more likely than McCain to capture their votes, with 58% suggesting that they might vote for Obama compared to just 45% for McCain. [...]

They want to hear more about issues, of course:

The economy remains the #1 issue among young voters, but it's position has solidified since the last poll in February, with more young voters than ever citing it as the top issue which the next president must address. Among independents, a small but important piece of the youth electorate, College affordability remains an issue of concern. Candidates hoping to woo those voters into their column need to talk more about that issue on the trail. [...]

~65% of young voters believe that the candidates are not talking enough about college affordability and job creation, and a majority of young voters believe that the candidates are not talking enough about health care or gas and energy prices.

And then there is the Palin Non-Effect:

uch has been made about Sarah Palin as the Republican VP choice and the potential for her to appeal to young voters turned away by McCain's age, and in particular to pull young, independent women behind the Republican ticket. This has not happened. As we saw above, support among young voters for McCain remains both low and steady. While Palin's entry has energized young Republican women and young Republicans who already supported the ticket, it has failed to move young voters generally. In addition:

By over a 30 point margin (76 - 42%), young women view Obama's candidacy as more historic than Palin's quest for the Vice Presidency.
Young Republicans, and young Republican women, are the most likely to see Palin's choice as VP as historic (61 and 68%, respectively). All other groups see Obama's candidacy as the more historic, defining choice of this election.
Like McCain, Sarah Palin has a net negative fav/unfav rating among young voters, with only 37% viewing her favorably compared to 40% who view her unfavorably.

Finally, they're not just doing politics on the Web:

Rock the Vote's poll also shatters some myths about how young people participate in the election. One of the biggest stories this year has been the role of technology in engaging young voters. While many active young voters - hundreds of thousands to millions - have engaged the campaign through these technologies, the vast majority are still engaged primarily via word of mouth contact with their friends and family. These face to face, peer to peer conversations are still the primary way by which young people learn about and are engaged in this election cycle.

posted by ladd on 09/23/08 at 11:37 PM

posted by justjess on 09/24/08 at 09:50 AM

posted by ladd on 09/24/08 at 09:56 AM

posted by justjess on 09/24/08 at 01:22 PM